Friday, August 6, 2010

"The Inflation Trader" Doesn't See Gold Bubble

Through a comparson of three ratios, gold versus oil, the S&P 500 and house prices, "The Inflation Trader" concludes gold is not in a bubble. Although the last ratio is somewhat high, the first two don't show much overvaluation.
All in all, I think there are no real signs that gold is in a bubble at the moment. With real yields around zero out to the 5-year point, gold (probably through an ETF like GLD) is a defensible investment.

One metric that shows gold is in a nascent bubble is the effect that investment demand has had on the metal, without which gold would be in the 800s. Still, even at these prices, there isn't any sign of an all-out bubble. I still believe there will be one, although not in the near future. A ramp-up in inflation would provide the catalyst, because the gold story has spread far and wide enough for an inflation ramp-up to provide a major impetus to piling into gold.

1 comment:

  1. I have a web site where I follow penny stocks and stocks under five or two dollars. I have many years of experience with these type of stocks. I remember very well the price of silver peaked in I think 1980 at 50 dollars an ounce. Silver is still below its high of thirty years ago while gold is now seven hundred dollars above its high of 1000 dollars an ounce in 1980 compared to gold silver still looks pretty cheap here.