Louis James Sees Pre-Mania Phase For Gold

James, the Senior Editor, Casey’s International Speculator, says gold and the gold stocks are being held back by memories of 2008. Although gold initially rose when Bear, Sterns got into its trouble, the metal lost more than 30% from then 'til October. The gold stocks got slaughtered.

James suggests the gold stock now, particularly the exploration juniors, are being held back by a fear of another 2008. This time, though, he thinks gold will benefit more, and more quickly:

As the debt-glue holding everything together continues to lose its grip, the ride will only get rougher. As bad as 2008 was, if the Crisis Creature appears to be coming back when everyone on Main Street thought it was dead, the fear should be much worse – and that should drive gold way, way north. It’s possible the fear, coupled with the lack of any safer alternatives, could prevent gold from melting down at all, sending it instead straight through the roof into the clear blue Mania Phase sky....

Unfortunately, the stampede to safety that drives investors to gold is not likely to drive them immediately to junior exploration stocks. “The most volatile stocks on earth” is not what fearful people will be looking for – not until the panic sufficiently recedes and greed joins fear in equal measure in the marketplace…or in greater measure, come the Mania Phase.

If I’m right about fear being the driving force in the markets in 2010, whereas greed drove them in 2009, gold will have to deliver a serious wake-up call – perhaps holding over $1,500 – to really get the show on the road again for the gold stocks. If that happens while fear of a global economic slowdown continues to push oil prices lower, gold producers should be able to report extraordinary profit increases, even as other industries are tanking, and finally penetrate deeply into the awareness of broader pools of investors....

He thinks the producers will benefit sooner, and suggests holding off from buying any gold exploration stock unless it's a real bargain and has a deposit that's millions of ounces in size.


Trouble is, it's hard to find any real bargains using that criterion. From what I've seen, they're in "buy high, sell higher" territory.