Monday, January 25, 2010

A Bear Threshold From A Gold Bull

Over at Seeking Alpha, contributor "Gold Price Today" points out that gold held up fairly well as compared with the stock market last Friday. Instead of going into a tumble 'til the end of trading, gold bottomed in the morning and held its support level of $1,090. He (or she) hints that the buy end of the greenback carry trade is mainly higher-yielding risk assets, not gold.

The money quote's near the end of the piece:
The price would have to drop below $1000 and stay there for the long term picture to turn bearish. In this case we’d look to see if India, China and other central banks would look to add to their reserves.

Therein is an important point. I know next to nothing about how PRC monetary officials tick, but I wouldn't be surprised if there's been a private goal set to buy reserve gold at a beat-India price. For the record, the central bank of India bought the 200 tons of IMF gold at about $1,050.

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