Friday, January 29, 2010

Inflation Isn't Just Creeping Up In The U.S.

Despite the most recent figures being slighly lower than expected, inflation in Euroland is a positive 1%. That figure crept up from 0.9% last month, although the expectation was for 1.2%. Unlike U.S. inflation, there's no core rate; the figure is the change over the last twelve months.

It's true that Euroland inflation is benign - the spin is right on this point - but it's still positive. Of course, it's only positive because of an unusually dovish policy stance by the European Central Bank (ECB). The spin, though, is intended to influence the ECB to stay unusually dovish: high unemployment is cited as the cause for keeping inflation subdued.

Will Euroland endure stagflation in the years ahead? Given the U.S.' experience, it seems likely - but not for some time now.

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