New Gold Analyst Poll Shows Moderating Bullishness

All-but gone are the forecasts for $1,400 gold. As reported by Reuters, the median forecast for the average price this year is about $1,150. That's still up from last year's average of $1,014, but it's far less than the numbers from the days when November's parabolic rise looked unstoppable. It's also less than those from about a month ago, when December's fall-back seemed a short-term retrenchment.

The poll shows that the metal is expected to peak in the second quarter of 2010, and to hold the bulk of its gains for the remainder of the year and into 2011.

According to the median forecasts given, gold will average $1,150 in the first quarter of the year, rising to $1,200 in the second, before easing back to $1,185 in the third and $1,175 in the last three months of the year.

In 2011 prices are expected to be virtually unchanged, with the median forecast for that year coming in fractionally below this year's figure at $1,150.00 an ounce.

What a difference a month has made. There's still optimism, but the frothiness has mostly drained.


Those looking for attitudinal lags may find this snippet of interest: "Several gold market analysts were sanguine on the outlook for U.S. borrowing costs, citing the shaky nature of economic recovery...."