Double American Exports In Five Years? Not Very Likely

That's what a New York Times review of Obama's goal says. Although exports increased at a nice clip - faster than imports - in the fourth quarter, a lot of that increase was due to the falling U.S. dollar. The greenback resurgence didn't start until the beginning of December.

Look at what the U.S. export sector, unless currency-hedged, has to face in this quarter:



Before coming to a rest, the U.S. Dollar Index got up to 79.448 - almost 79.5 - as of about noon ET. Interday, a new candlestick has to be added to the right of the most recent one; it has to stretch up one full hatch higher. 79.5 is the highest number on the graph; it's just below the RSI part.

Any exporteers had better hope hard that the resurgence in the greenback is due to the greenback carry trade being unwound. If not, we're in the early stages of an all-out U.S. dollar bull market.


Such a bull market will be bad for gold...or should be bad for gold.