After discussing Euro sentiment, which is near an all-time low by the indicator he uses, "Babak" turns to several gold indicators and finds one of them at an extreme: the Daily Sentiment Index, from trade-futures.com. It clocked in at 98%: virtual unanimity.
The others, though, don't show extremes although they're all solidly bullish. It looks like some caution is still around, including amongst investors in gold stocks.
On a related subject, George Soros has reduced his exposure to GLD. The blogger who points it out argues that Soros likely made a mistake.
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I think people worry too much about what the likes of Warren Buffet and George Soros think. These guys may be very good at what they do, but they really have no practical advice to share with the common investor (i.e., the Outsider), for these guys are all "Insiders". I mean, if anyone is naive enough to think they can emulate a Soros or Buffet without the insider info, then they won't hold on to thier money for long. Warren Buffest says he likes to scourcompanies financials, buy good companies, then "Hold on to them forever" or some such cracker-barrel malarkey, but I don't believe him for a second. With the accounting rules as they are, NO ONE can make sense of most financials and most of what's on those financials is there to confuse. At this point, if you don't have someone inside the company explaining to you the real story, then you're totally without a clue. Consequently, if anyone is to be consistently successful in the current environment, then they deal with inside info. It's time we faced that hard fact.
ReplyDeleteThey tend to get lost in their experience too, and there's a code of nicety which disallows them from saying something closer to the truth like: "God-given talent and years of practice." A concert pianist or entertainer could get away with it.
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