Seeking Alpha Contributor Forecasts "Stealth Inflation"

More specifically, Bo Peng is forecasting commodity-driven inflation. His analysis is based upon commodities being the plausible candidate for a new bubble, as well as a skeptical evaluation of interest-rate jack-ups in reducing inflation.

Another contributor, Daryl Montgomery, focuses on the fact that, during deflation, it's not only short-term government yields that shrink to near-zero. Long-term rates do too. With respect to U.S. rates, short terms have followed the deflationary script...but long-term rates have not. He concludes that current long-term U.S. (and U.K.) rates are anticipating a revival in inflation.


Myself, I've been using the term "reflation." Although not originally meant as such, it's a useful portmanteau word: "recovery inflation." That kind won't balloon into full-blown inflation because it's associated with central back recession-fighting, which ends when recovery's in place. Given the recent recession, that's where we are in the business cycle right now. I believe that serious inflation will take some time to kick in.