Mixed Signals

Two Marketwatch pieces, both by market advisors, each have opposite conclusions about gold. The first, by Thomas Kee, advises people to shy away from gold. His reasons: U.S. dollar stabilization, and the end of the greenback carry trade. The rest of his piece says that the U.S. stock market will also go down in '10.

On the other side is Michael Kahn. He isn't a greenback bear, but believes that the recent shake-out in gold has come to an end. In his view, the technical picture of gold suggests that the November excesses have been corrected. His capstone point is that a bullish greenback consensus has formed, which makes him wonder if the U.S. dollar's rally is over.


Differences of opinion can be found elsewhere, too. This GoldAlert piece rallies the usual money-centered talking points to make the case that gold will march upwards this year. On the other hand, this Gold Investing News article says that gold is likely to keep correcting. [I got the latter piece courtesy of Resource Investing News.]


Put them together, and you may end up with a debate (or arguments.) Gold bulls can take comfort from the fact that last November's bullish consensus has evaporated.