Friday, June 4, 2010

Where's The Inflation?

Holdings for the GLD have increased quite a bit over the last month, but it isn't the only inflation-related ETF whose holdings are jumping up. Also increasing is the iShares Barclay's TIPS ETF, as recounted by Paul Amery in a Seeking Alpha article.

Trouble is, as Amery points out further, there's no sign of inflation anticipation heating up in the raw markets for those bonds. He also notes that the inferred M3 money supply is dropping year-over-year right now.


For gold, this is explained by the metal acting as a disaster hedge. The rise in the TIPS ETF, though, suggests that gold is also rising on anticipated inflation. What makes the TIPS more vulnerable is they're tied specifially to U.S.inflation, not world inflation like gold is. If U.S. inflation doesn't rise, while that of other countries does, then the TIPS will be hit more squarely than gold would be.

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