David Goldman, in a Seeking Alpha article, notes that gold's historical volatility is much lower than the S&P's. He concludes that the reason for it is central-bank purchases, and the risk of higher interest rates driving up stock volatility.
After watching the gold market for some time, I'm convinced that gold is in a nascent bubble. This blog will watch the gold market, supply commentary, sometimes mention gold stocks, and keep a watch on the world of gold speculation. It's going to be a wild ride for some time now.
The Enter Stage Right article that kicked off this blog contains a fuller explanation of my reasoning: it's here.
As an update to it, for those familiar with its contents, the U.S. dollar carry trade is unwinding but gold hasn't been hammered all that much as of yet. The resultant decline has been at the correction level.
Disclaimer
Although I try to maintain a detached viewpoint on this blog, I do have opinions that are almost certainly influenced by what I've done with my own money. For the record, I am long gold-exploration stocks.
Also, I must emphasize that I am not a registered investment advisor, and that I am not licensed to dispense investment advice in my jurisdiction of residence. Consequently, this is not an investment-advice blog. It shouldn't be taken as such.
In addition to the standard boilerplate caution for you to do your own due diligence should you invest or speculate, I'd like to add a special caution: gold, by far, is the asset class that elicits the most emotions. A solid consensus of experieced investment professionals considers emotionality to be a performance-hobbler. In addition to doing your own research, and/or using a licensed professional to do so, I suggest that you watch yourself. I try to myself, and the detachment I show is largely a product of it.
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