Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Bullish Rebuttal At Seeking Alpha

It's by Jordan Roy-Byrne, and it's entitled "A Stern Reality Check for Gold Naysayers." He begins by debunking the claim that gold's in an all-out bubble by showing that mainstream allocations to gold are quite small today when compared to two climaxes in 1934 and 1980. Also, he points to public-opinion figures that show less public bullish sentiment now than in 2006 and 2008.

In the latter part, he offers the opinion that gold is on the crest of a parabolic rise:

In the 1970s, gold began to go parabolic in the middle of 1979, almost 10 years into the bull market. The important breakout occurred in 1978, and then corrected 20% back just below the breakout point...

This time around, the important breakout occurred at the end of 2007 and then in 2008 we had the snapback to support, though the snapback was a large 34%. Note that in the last bull market the process of breakout, snapback and parabolic move took a year to develop, while this time it is taking about two years. That means this parabolic move will last longer....

Take a look again at the gold chart [included in the original article] and you will notice that the parabolic move has already begun. The recognition phase likely will take some time to develop. While gold could move to $1300 in the spring, we don’t expect sustained new highs until later this year.


His opinion in the matter isn't very far removed from my own, I should add.

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