Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Mixed Signals From Commerzbank

The technical-analysis department has given one signal, and the commodities department has sent out another one. This pair of Business Week Online articles have both:

"Gold May Drop to $1,025, Commerzbank Says: Technical Analysis"

"Gold May Advance as Prices Near Three-Month Low Lure Investors."

It's not uncommon to see technical and fundamental analysts recommend opposite sides of the trade, but it is unusual to see the same institution issuing opposite-direction calls on the same day. Commerzback employees can brag about the independence of its analytical departments from each other, at least the departments located in different countries. The former call comes from the London office, while the latter comes from the Frankfurt office.

For the record, the technical-analysis bear case centers around a busted uptrend and '“considerable resistance”' at the $1,074 level. The fundamental-analyst bull case rests on bargain-hunting. Either way, the bases are covered unless gold stays stuck in a trading range.

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