Thursday, July 22, 2010

Cautiuonary Article On Gold

Lee Hudson Teslik and Rachel Ziemba, both with Roubini Global Economics, are not enthused about gold even though they point out the metal has been the best-performing core asset class this past decade. In essence, they think Ben Bernanke and the Fed will avoid both serious inflation and deflation. The third factor that tends to propel gold upwards, a financial crisis, is a factor they don't dismiss out of hand. But, they think the downside risk in gold outweigh the upside.

Someone who's critical-minded would point out the pair contradict themselves when shifting from discussing inflation to discussing deflation. They think the Fed can steer a middle course without any mishaps, which is unlikely to convince a Fed skeptic. The overall track record of the Fed shows erring on the side of inflation.

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