Thursday, April 1, 2010

Przemyslaw Radomski Sees Gold's Action Now As Resembling August '09's

On the second page of a Minyanville article entitled "What it Means for Gold if the General Market Tops," whose first page deals with the S&P 500, Radomski notes a similar downtrend line and stochastic reading between now and August 2009:



Using the Gold Trust ETF (GLD), which is a proxy for the gold market, the current stochastic level of around 20 and the RSI around 70 are also similar to the August 2009 pattern. In the past we have also come back to re-test the previous low, which has just taken place, further confirming my bullish analysis.

I realize one might perceive the last six-week action as a bearish head-and-shoulders formation, but before opening short positions, please note that the August 2009 action was also similar to this pattern, and Gold managed to rally very strongly soon after that. Moreover -- based on yesterday's closing price -- the formation isn't completed, as prices failed to move decisively below the late-February bottom. What's even more interesting, the value of the GLD ETF managed to move decisively above that low, which serves as a strong bullish signal.

A more complete explanation, including a proprietary indicator, is in the second page of the article itself.

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