Hidden Inflation, For Now

In a Seeking Alpha blog post, Daryl Montgomery discusses "inflation denial" and points to the gold and oil market as seeing through it.

The case for inflation is based on common sense and the laws of simple arithmetic. A country cannot create money at a rate that's faster than its economy is growing. If this occurs, the currency is devalued and it then will take more units of currency to purchase any given item (which is the same as saying prices go up). There is a time lag between these two events, however, sometimes many years, so people frequently don't connect them. Indeed, governments that engage in this behavior frequently go to great lengths to ensure the public doesn't make the connection and realize that inflation is caused by government actions. Invariably throughout history, speculators and foreigners are blamed for rising prices. Think about whether or not you've heard any talk about speculators lately. There will be a lot more of that in the future.

When it comes to inflation, governments not only try to act like magicians and dazzle you with one hand while picking your pocket with the other, but they also engage in strong and persistent denial of its existence....

He says further that government reports showing emerging inflation tend to be late, if not outright lagging.