Friday, January 22, 2010

Inflation Angst

Brad Zigler of has confessed to his uncertainties in a Seeking Alpha article about the inflation/deflation debate. He's gotten to the point where he's internalized it.

What got him in his funk was a point long made by deflationists: the huge ballooning in the monetary base hasn't led to inflation or even much money-supply growth [except for M1, although its year-to-year growth rate has slowed down to about 6%.]'s own monetary inflation indicator has moved up at a rapid (if uneven) clip through almost all of 2009, after plummeting in the summer and fall of 2008. Yet, price inflation has not shown up.

He also notes the lack of cost-push pressure, particularly in the labor market, which has also held down price inflation. Zigler's still an inflationist, but he definitely has his doubts.

In another SA article, analyst Przemyslaw Radomski says the recent rout in gold is close to an end. This fellow called the recent decline more than two weeks ago; even if gold didn't go his way until a few days ago, he still ended up being prescient. He does, however, caution that the drop looks like it has some ways to go still.

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