Wednesday, November 25, 2009

New book predicting collapse of U.S. dollar

The book is Aftershock: Protect yourself and profit in the next global financial meltdown, and it's by two analysts who predicted the subprime meltdown earlier. Reuters has a review of it here.

The authors predict:
...The euro will rise to about $2 over the next two to three years, before surging rapidly above $3, [according to] Wiedemer, whose risk assessment firm advises hedge funds and businesses.

At first, Treasuries will keep their safe haven status. A year or two of double-digit inflation and interest rates will then trigger a sell off in U.S. government bonds and batter stocks, says the book published by John Wiley & Sons.

This view is extreme even among those economists who expect the dollar to decline in coming years....

Extreme indeed. The greenback's being bashed an awful lot lately; given that the Euro's breached the $1.50 resistance level, that bashing makes some short-term sense. On the other hand, markets are notoriously refractory. Consider: if I can secure a foreign-exchange account that offers 3% overnight leverage, and if my timing is superb enough to win a gains cushion for the account, I can sit back and expect to make more than ten-and-a-half times my initial capital. [32% gain * 33.3-to-1 leverage.] That seems way too good to be true.

If the Euro rises above its previous record of $1.60 and stays there, we have more fuel for the emerging gold bubble.

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