Bulls, Short-Term And Long

Howard Katz, in the Market Oracle, backs up his call that Friday's decline was a fake-out. Using the longer-term chart, he shows that the gold bull market is still intact. Friday's spill, he uses as an example of why short-term traders wind up losing.


Another article with a bullish thrust, although targeted at the shorter term, was webbed by City AM. The framework used is the GFMS call for the end of the bull market at $1,300, and the advice contained is geared towards a bullish punt:

With sovereign risks undeniably present and fears of US dollar weakness in the second quarter, investors are preferring to hold gold because it is a safe-haven.

Indeed, the latest dip was met with renewed buying appetite thanks in part to China’s strong GDP growth figures, says Simon Denham, managing director at spread betting-provider Capital Spreads.

At the moment the key levels to the upside are at $1,170 and $1,184. Denham adds: “Any further strong economic numbers, particularly from the big emerging economies, could help to support gold and bulls will be eyeing another run at $1,200 at some point this year.”...

The recent burst in the gold price has been met with a mixed reaction in the physical markets. Asian jewellery demand has dwindled slightly as the Chinese New Year celebrations came to an end and the Indian wedding season drew to a close.

However, Societe Generale’s commodity analysts say that there is a long-term endemic bullishness about gold in India and there are also rising concerns about inflation in China. Therefore, they are still expecting gold to rise even further, forecasting a $1,400 average for 2011.

Short term or long, there's still a fair bit of bullishness out there. Contrarians may want to take note, but gold's present prices are near the bargain zone for physical buyers.