Monday, May 10, 2010

Gold Near Record, But Contraian Indicators Red Flags

In his latest Marketwatch column, Peter Brimelow points out that goldbugs are divided about the metal's soar to a near record. On the one hand, last week's performance was widely seen as vindication. On the other hand, the gold shares aren't confirming the new high. Also, some gold substitutes are trading at a disturbingly high premium:
A writer on the Le Metropole Café site points out about the two closed-end bullion trusts:

"...Central Fund of Canada Limited closed at a 13.1% premium to Net Asset Value and Sprott Physical Gold Trust at a startling 20.952%, a record for the latter and the highest for the former since before its last secondary early last November. Demand for bullion exposure is running very high."

Sad to say, it's May. Although gold's vindication is real, the old seasonality rule says that May is a toppy month. Those contrarian measures gibe with May being toppy.

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