U.S. New Home Sales Jump By 27%

This datum goes beyond exciting to perplexing. New homes sales for March have leapt up by 27% from February's record low, making for the largest month-to-month gain since April 1963. A last-minute rush to take advantage of the new-home tax credit, as well as better weather, were mentioned as causes.

The Marketwatch article that reports on it is laden with skepticism, which says something in itself.

Government statisticians have low confidence in the monthly report, which is subject to large revisions, and large sampling and other statistical errors.

In most months, the government isn't sure whether sales rose or fell. The standard error in March, for instance, was plus or minus 21.1%. Read the full government report.

The government says it can take up to five months to establish a statistically significant trend in sales. Over the past five months, sales have been on a 358,000 seasonally adjusted annual pace, up from 355,000 in the five-month interval through February.

Sales of new homes had fallen four months in a row before March's surprising boom. A federal tax credit for home buyers that expires soon seemed to have little impact on sales until March....

The news hardly affected the U.S. Dollar Index, but the gold market took the opportunity to build upon a rally that started at 9:45 AM ET. As of 10:22, the spot price was $1,145.20 for a gain - yes, a gain - of $3.90 on the day.