Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Advice From An Old Goldbug

That goldbug is Howard Ruff, whose first gold-related book How To Prosper During The Coming Bad Years was a huge best-seller in 1978 and '79. Although a relative latecomer to the gold bull market in the 1970s, as compared with (say) the late Harry Browne, he nevertheless earned his spurs in the '70s. He was also burned in the '80s when the gold bull market ended.

As of now, he sees the new '70s blooming in the gold market. That call, he makes clear in "Are gold and silver bad-news bulls?"

He's not one to deny that gold and silver tend to be contrarian investments, which tend to attract doom-and-gloomers. He manages to keep a sunny disposition, though, through a certain structuring:
A real optimist knows when to plant corn when everybody else is expecting a drought, and when not to. Although optimism and pessimism are states of mind, and have nothing to do with truth, they have a lot to do with guts—the ability to be comfortable looking north when everyone else is looking south. I may be wrong about a lot of things, but I try to be driven by realism and objective truth, not some socially approved state of mind.
He recommends buying junk silver, bullion silver coins and gold coins. Stocks, he recommends shying away from until a physical-metal core holding worth several thousand dollars is established first. He explicitly recommends abjuring the futures market, as gold is too volatile for the average investor to avoid being burned by a correction in that arena.

His old fans will recognize some familiar themes in his article.

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