Sunday, January 10, 2010

Thumbnail Financial Sense Newshour Wrapup

The first 2010 episode of the Financial Sense Newshour podcast had little to do with gold; instead, forecasts for the U.S. stock market and economy were focused upon. One guest, Jeff Christian of the CPM Group, opined that gold will end up at about US$1,150 at the end of this year. He didn't think that gold would enter a trading range; instead, he thought that gold would make a run up to $1,450 and then slump back down.

One forecaster with an uncanny 2009 track record was focused upon: Byron Wein. His 2010 predictions are here. Although he didn't make any prediction regarding gold, he did forecast that Fed Fund rate will go to 2% and that 10-year T-bonds would reach 5.5%. He also predicted that the U.S. dollar would rise vis-a-vis the yen and euro.

If his uncanniness continues, then 2010 will not be great for gold. Rising interest rates and a rising dollar will put a crimp on any sustained gold rally, unless it rallies in other currencies too.

Speaking of rallies: as I write this post, spot gold's shot up well above $1,150. Whether sustainable or not, the rally looks solid.

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