Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Gold Bearishness Thickening, And The Contrarian View

"GuestPoster" at Investing Contrarian has surveyed the gold landscape and sees a buying opportunity. The deflationists are out in force, and many gold bulls are getting skittish. To a contrarian, that means "buying opportunity."
I have always been here before. Since 2002 (my personal entry point into the secular bull market) we have witnessed this ‘wash, rinse, repeat’ cycle play out several times. As has been noted repeatedly in the newsletter and blog, the Deflation captains – smart economists that they tend to be, with a tragic and almost comical blind spot – are helpful to the process of protecting one’s wealth over the long term with the monetary metal that is no one’s liability. After all, would you rather buy on declines that start out as well and good technical corrections and morph into emotion-fueled, savage drops propelled by the herd’s perceptions? Or would you rather buy hype-fueled runaway price increases?...

Oh and to the d Boys, that is not a picture of a bubble… no matter how hard you click your heels, study Great Depression theory and ignore the fact that monetary authorities need you and your linear philosophy in order to kick start a popular mandate for more inflationary policy. In short, Ben Bernanke is playing you, whether intentionally or not. He needs your story because his power goes out the window if inflation expectations break out. This is again denoted by the monthly EMA 100 on the 30 year treasury bond, followed slavishly on the blog....

He has a point. Widespread jitters among bulls are often a sign that a market's been oversold, and there isn't any reason why the long-term bull market has come to an end.

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