Wednesday, January 13, 2010

For Perspective

One of the unique features of the goldbug world is the continual recounting of a happy future that would (effectively) put goldbugs out of business. Should the gold standard be restored, there'd be no need for gold speculators any more. There may be spot exceptions in the case of occasional monetary diddling, but there might not be enough business (outside of gold mining) for even one permanent specialist in gold-watching. Some might conclude that there's a religious element in the goldbug worldview, because there is a similarity to religious myths that posit a golden past and a trouble-free future. However, it seems to be the effect of the goldbugs' second hat as political critic. The oft-repeated reasons why "gold is money" seems less a creed and more a talking point. One interesting consequence is that goldbugs are far less likely than other market analysts to talk their book, except when things get wild. Then, during bubble time, we read excited forecasts of hyperinflation and ruination of fiat currencies. In calmer times, the only ones forecasting hyperinflation are hardcore goldbugs who have an affection for theory.

Here's one example of the end-of-speculation trope, from Steven Saville:
The reality is that a long-term DOWNWARD trend in prices is the natural way of things in a FREE economy. In the absence of government manipulation of the money supply, prices will naturally fall over the long-term due to increasing productivity. This means that in the absence of government manipulation of the money supply there would be no need for a person to speculate in order to secure his/her financial future. A person could simply save cash, safe in the knowledge that the cash will buy at least as much in the future as it does in the present. In other words, monetary inflation forces everyone to become a speculator, an endeavour at which some will succeed and most will fail.
Once he get by the bye-and-bye part, he shows he's an inflationist. For players, the core of his analysis is a defense of the "True Money Supply" metric as an accurate gauge of money-supply growth, and a debunking of the accuracy of alternate measures.

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